Ruto, Uhuru in fresh battle
A fresh showdown is brewing between President William Ruto and his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, in the upcoming Isiolo South MP by-election. What started as a local succession race is quickly turning into a high-stakes proxy battle for political power in northern Kenya. The children of the late MP Mohamed Tubi, who sadly passed away last November, are eager to step up and fill his shoes in the by-election set for February 26.
However, this sibling rivalry has been significantly influenced by the country’s major political players, with each child now representing their respective backers. On Wednesday, Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni confirmed to the Star that the party would endorse Bina Mohamed for the candidacy.
“A by-election is a chance for us to voice our issues as a party. We’re in this for the long haul. We value being on the ground and are looking forward to running peaceful campaigns,” he stated.
Bina has also made her intentions clear, publicly announcing her bid for the upcoming by-election. Her father, who was elected in 2022, ran under the Jubilee Party banner. Kioni’s remarks highlight Jubilee’s commitment to staying relevant for the former President, even after facing significant losses in the 2022 elections.
For Uhuru’s party, holding onto the Isiolo South MP seat is crucial for maintaining a presence and proving that the former President’s influence endures, despite his retirement. This is especially important among some pastoralist communities and his support base in Mt Kenya, where Jubilee has been working to strengthen its grassroots networks in preparation for the 2027 elections.
Ruto’s team is looking to shake things up for Jubilee by putting forward the politician’s son to run under the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) banner. Tubi Mohamed has already garnered strong support for the position. Just this Tuesday, UDA handed him a nomination certificate, making him a leading contender.
Now, the full force of the ruling party is expected to rally behind Tubi, with possible campaign backing from high-ranking government officials. Back in November, he received unanimous endorsement from the Isiolo elders, which is a crucial endorsement in a region where clan support holds significant influence.
This situation sets up the contest as a choice between aligning with a development-driven national government or siding with a declining opposition party. Ruto has been strategically working to bring in leaders from rival factions, gradually expanding UDA’s presence across the nation, one constituency at a time.
In the recent Mbeere North by-election, UDA successfully ousted the Democratic Party from its sole seat in the National Assembly. The President appointed Geoffrey Ruku as the CS for Public Service, showcasing the victory his party achieved last November.
“Winning a seat that has traditionally been held by Jubilee in a region with intricate clan and ethnic dynamics would be a major symbolic win for the President,” noted political analyst Javas Bigambo. Besides the Isiolo South MP seat, a new battle is brewing between the ruling UDA party and the opposition.
The Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), led by Rigathi Gachagua, has made it clear that they won’t be putting forward any candidates for the upcoming elections. Meanwhile, their allies in the united opposition are gearing up for a showdown.
DCP spokesperson Ken Njohi stated, “DCP shall not be fielding candidates in February by-elections in Isiolo South and Mbeere North (Muminji & Evurore wards)….”
He also took a swipe at Jubilee, which brands itself as a Mũlima (Mount Kenya) party, urging them to step up and show what they’re made of on his social media on Wednesday.
Njohi’s comments underscore the shifting dynamics and tensions within the opposition. This announcement comes right after the UDA party handed out certificates to their candidates who will be running in the by-elections for Evurore, Muminji, and West Kabras wards.
The nominees for the MCA positions are Elphas Shalakha, Peterson Njiri, and Duncan Nyaga, representing Malava’s West Kabras and Mbeere North’s Muminji and Evurore wards, respectively.
These seats became vacant after Duncan Mbui of Evurore and Newton Karishi of Muminji stepped down to pursue parliamentary positions, but they lost to UDA’s Leonard Wamuthende. The West Kabras ward was previously held by David Ndakwa, who has since been elected as an MP following the November 2025 by-election.
UDA’s secretary general, Hassan Omar, has promised the candidates the party’s full backing, while also calling for humility in their campaigns to secure a win in the mini-polls. Analysts believe that these simultaneous by-elections present UDA with a prime opportunity to strengthen its foothold at the grassroots level across various regions, putting its organizational capabilities to the test.
The opposition is gearing up to put forward joint candidates in every ward, with the Democratic Party taking the lead in Evurore ward while the Devolution Empowerment Party aims to make its mark in Muminji ward. However, the united opposition’s game plan for the Isiolo South MP seat is still a bit murky, especially since Jubilee has already staked its claim with Bina stepping into the race.
This fragmented opposition could end up giving an edge to the ruling party’s candidate, Tubi. But Bina isn’t backing down easily; she points to her strong family ties in Isiolo South as her driving force. In a statement that has sparked quite a bit of chatter throughout the constituency, she highlighted her heritage and the respect her family holds in the community. “I am a proud daughter of Mohamed Tubi, and I believe I deserve to be elected as the Member of Parliament for Isiolo South,” she declared.
“The people of Isiolo South recognize my family as one that has been part of their lives, especially after my father divorced my mother. Our mother stepped up and raised us as if we were from a dynasty.”
Her announcement comes at a time when there are reports of family disputes regarding succession and the acknowledgment of various branches of the late MP’s family. Sources close to the family indicate that tensions have flared over which relatives should carry on Mohamed’s political legacy.
Political analysts in the North observe that family dynamics often play a crucial role in local elections, particularly in pastoralist communities where clan unity and legacy hold significant weight.
As the campaign season kicks off, the Isiolo South by-election is poised to reflect the current political climate, especially in the Northeastern region.
Ruto, Uhuru in fresh battle
